August or Bust

So my new aim is to get 2 of these out per month, so I'm gonna take a break from doing searches for rental comps in Bed Stuy and Fort Greene, coops with unlimited subletting clauses in Downtown Manhattan, No Fee Rentals in Queens, Townhouse comp searches in Bed Stuy, condo/2fam searches in Bed Stuy and condo searches in East Village for a bit and crank this badboy out. Youuuuu. Right. You. I'm going to start reaching out to individual readers to see how I can help you, or at least engage a bit more than this newsletter format, because in times like this, everybody needs a trustworthy guide or personal luck dragon.

 

 

Oh yes, the world is still falling apart, but for those of us that can control the walled perimeter that encloses our lives, real estate can be soothing. And I'd love to help you rent, buy, or sell your piece of NYC, or anywhere Keller Williams has offices. 

17 countries All states. Most agents in the world! Whaddup NICE (France).
 
OK. The lead in. August. Whoa, who knew August was such a hodge podge of mensual origination myth. First it was Sextilis and had 29 months and was the 6th month, then became the 8th month and gained an extra 2 days, and finally got a name change. Maybe that's why the market is so hard to read right now.

Talk about entanglement! No shade to the Fresh Prince. Just worked for the triple dive metaphor. That and I had a coffee with hot chocolate and an espresso before a pitch at 3:45pm, and I'm writing at 11:45pm!

Now for the squiggly lights. Quantum entanglement. Click pic for link to article. Text for link to Wikipedia. It's dense. I like Quantum Physics, it's like Science Magical Realismo. #Almodovar #Einstein #selfdeterminism

Anyway, how is this relevant to real estate?

Quantum entanglement is a physical phenomenon that occurs when a pair or group of particles is generated, interact, or share spatial proximity in a way such that the quantum state of each particle of the pair or group cannot be described independently of the state of the others, including when the particles are separated by a large distance. The topic of quantum entanglement is at the heart of the disparity between classical and quantum physics: entanglement is a primary feature of quantum mechanics lacking in classical mechanics.

Wait What? Translation and Correlation: This market is all over the place. Like a chaotic river, wide and deep, the current flows in all directions and seemingly unconnected units are inextricably linked, yet when searching only on one level unexplicably so. HUH? The river hosts many ecosystems that recycles and feeds multiple hosts and organisms so long as some sort of organic balance is maintained.

Ok. Super Plain English. In some sectors it's a buyer's market, too much inventory or too little demand means you can come in and take advantage of the all time low mortgage rates and get yourself a nice coop that will let you sublet, maybe, after 2 years of occupancy. And it's possible under 500k... heck, possible under 400k even. 

At the same time, we are experiencing limited supply due to the fact that many potential sellers are experiencing financial hardship and unsure of whether they would qualify for a mortgage given their new fin stats, or generally cautious sellers opting to wait for more clarity before listing.

So a condo two blocks away from the same 500k coop could be listed for 500k and go above asking in less than a month, because people are spooked by coops (and commitment) and want to be able to downgrade their home to a passive investment as soon as they fall out of love with the city (again), likely to return in 12-18 months because umm Armonk?. 

I'm not sure of the metric of buyers to available property at every price point, but let's say 5 offers for quality property, which I have recently experienced, means 4 jilted buyers need to reevaluate their priorities, their war chest, or explicitly quantify their predilection for this specific moment in time.

So, yeah, money is cheap, if your financial situation hasn't changed, but the 500k-900k market is fast water. You definitely need to be recently preapproved and prepared to put your best foot forward.

Investment Condo vs Lux Hi Rise Concessions

Investment Condo vs Lux Hi-Rise Concessions
Which won is the condo, which is the rental? Which rents 4 cheaper?

Take it to LIC/Astoria and say Fort Greene, where you have doorman elevator rentals offering 2-3 months free. Up to 5 months in one instance. Work from home-rs who don't want to leave the city (yet) can get a sweet deal for 12-15 months, after which they will feel the wrath of full time gross rent, unless the vaccine doesn't work and the election, umm, doesn't work.

But for the next 12-15 months, Condo sellers looking to attract investors who want to attract renters, at some point, when (see above) they decide they are no longer in <3 with NYC, have to consider the glut of competition from luxury rentals in the corridor. Which "affordable" Coops don't have to consider as much, since, it's harder to sublet from day 1, and coops can be generally 20% cheaper than condos anyway. To be clear, I am not talking about CPW or UES "prestigious" coops.

So all that is to say.

1. You're still not getting your 20% off that the media promised you. cuz the media doesn't put properties in contract and has no fiduciary responsibility to sellers or buyers.

2. You may be able to get a great rate, but if you are going head to head with other motivated buyers in your weight class, for the same property, it will look more like a Royal Rumble than a gentleman's bout of fisticuffs.

3. So many opportunities are out there, but you really have to analyze what is best for you. The NYC real estate market, like any racial or ethnic group, (tree diversity exists too) is not a monolith, and provides a wealth of internal diversity requiring that each property type be treated with appreciation of its singular attributes and not typecast based on media portrayals and anecdotal boogeymanning.

4. Not all coops are hi-rise country clubs that hate everybody that doesn't shop at the same store. And if you can afford one of those, chances are you will pass the board interview. Again, not talking super Old Money Park Ave, CPW.

5. If you are going to be working from home, avoiding public transit when heading outside to pretend to be social, or at least talk to yourself in the open air (while masked), is internal space more important than prime location? Especially with Uber/Seamless/Lyft and eventually Tinder/Grindr... not to mention Xbox, PS4, Facetime and Zoom? 

Accepting the reality of your short term new reality and leaning into your actual ifestyle versus your desired or imagined best case social scenario could prove beneficial for a 12-15 month hold... as a renter. Yes you are taking a risk with net rent versus gross rent, but do you really think the absorption rate is going to allow large scale landlords to eschew concessions for summer rate rentals with no competition?

6. For renters, does that square footage need to come with a yoga room, doggie spa, roof top pool, and screening room? Or do you just need a way to make sure your Amazon packages don't get swiped if you are in the bathroom when they are delivered. Or do you just want to be able to walk to a park, grab a coffee, professional sandwich, or pastry and come right back home?

7. I don't have a 7th extreme example, I just consider it to be a round number and am including this as filler, to check... yep you noticed. Don't think I ever watched this show.

Look, the market as a whole is crazy. Large Rivers swallow brazen swimmers who dive head first without a plan. But the market is really about 137 markets in one, and chances are you only fit into 4 of them, and even so, you likely only want to entertain the search results of one set of search criteria. 

So instead of going back to the drawing board. Why don't we just fashion that pencil into a specialized tool to pick the lock to the city that never sleeps, or coughs, or dances, goes to movies, bowls, or roller skates in groups of more than 27. And let's find you a home, investment, pied-a-terre, love shack, starter home, first apartment together, apartment you know you're gonna grow out in x years, but still not ready for that Now +X apt.

So why do I tell you all this, because nobody searches 137 markets at the same time, except for a broker who specialiizes in getting the job done and finding the best home for individual customers. 

I work with all my customers and clients to help them realize their dream of owning a home, or at very least locating a home they can more than tolerate until they can afford a home that someone else is willing to move into and split rent. And in so doing, I learn a lot about the market(s), while providing sound (more than) real estate advice in the process.

I think my pop cultural references show my age. I hope my train of thought shows my depth, and I will include some more straightforward data below.
 
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